Jackson Hole is the Super Bowl of Macro

The world's most powerful central bankers and financial market mega players are gathering in Wyoming to decide on how they can continue their inept attempts at centrally planning the world economy

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

What is the Jackson Hole Symposium?

Let’s start by understanding what Jackson Hole actually is? It’s an event run by The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and they host dozen of central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world at its annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The purpose of the event, at least on paper, is to discuss the economic issues, implications, and policy options pertaining to the symposium topic. This usually covers some form of a macro headwind, monetary policy or economic action plan.
As traditional markets are going to be closed over the Symposium weekend, all eyes will be on the crypto market to digest the news coming out of the event. We will be watching the event quite closely over the weekend and will have key updates shared with you. I for one look forward to seeing the train wreck of ideas get smashed together for this year’s agenda “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy”.

The return of the crab

Following last Friday’s liquidation cascade the Bitcoin market has edged slightly higher. We sit right on the key level of 21.5k which shows a lot of indecision, as traders/investors unfortunately wait on the words of central bankers coming out of Jackson Hole. We will be watching 20.7k as a key support level, if it fails to hold on the H1 chart, a quick move to the 18.9k level can’t be ruled out. For upside momentum to be activated, you would want to see it close above 22.7k on the H1 chart for a retest of the 25k level.

The merge narrative remains strong

Ethereum has shown a little more vigour from the bounce following its liquidation cascade last Friday. It is largely buoyed by the continued excitement heading into the merge, set to occur in mid September. Currently ETH is trading at the $1,700 USD key level, which if you can recall was absolute titanium support having propped up the market several times in ‘21 and ‘22. Now it forms massive overhead resistance but if we break through a $2,000 USD retest is on the cards.

The downside risks are pretty pronounced though as expectations continue to rise, a shift in sentiment and another deleveraging event can cause a quick washout towards the $1,240 USD key level, which can quickly become a reflexive move for further downside as sentiment shifts with price.

Side note: Jackson Hole watching is absurd

Final note as we head into the weekend having to watch Jackson Hole to proactively trade potentially market moving events. Taking a step back it’s quite absurd that the global financial markets hang on the words of a few central bankers and government officials, it’s a sad reality and a symptom of a broken system.
This reality is a complete juxtaposition of “free market” ideals that we value as a core tenant of our belief system. We are becoming an economy that is increasingly centrally planned and history shows us quite clearly this doesn’t bode well.

If only there was a way to opt-out into some sort of alternative financial system, with fixed money supply and permission-less markets.

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