Hold on soldier
Key support levels across markets being tested and the macro data hasn't even been released yet
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Trading Note #2
We’re seeing the initial sell-off across risk assets in anticipation of a 75bps rise in the US FED funds rate set to be released at 4:30am AEST and the response has been soft with no meaningful bounce in prices.
From the recent rally where Bitcoin traded as high as 24.2k the king of digital assets is now trading down 13% and sitting precariously at 21.1k just 5.4% away from the key technical and psychological level of 20k.
There is likely to be a retest of this level which would be an eerily similar setup to what had occurred when the FED last hiked rates on the 15th June where there was a sell off into the 20k level and what followed was a 15% rally, now granted, back then the crypto asset class was battling contagion of 3AC, Celsius, Voyager and Blockfi, so prices were naturally suppressed as we had seen wholesale liquidations.
Seeing as most of the contagion news has been priced in and the bulk of the forced liquidations now in the rearview mirror, will Bitcoin have a clearer runway for a larger bear market relief rally and clear the 200 WMA or would a 75 to 100 bps rate hike have us retest the local low of 17.5k, recent history favours the bears but will the bulls allow enemy forces below 20k without a significant fight?
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In The News
Top Fidelity Macro Analyst Says Bitcoin Way Oversold as Key On-Chain Metric Reaches 2011 Levels
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